USA vs Uruguay Predictions, Odds & Copa America Best Bets

Mar 21, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; United States defender Joe Scally (19) in action during the game between the United States and Jamaica at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY SportsThe USA likely needs a win over a surging Uruguay side on Monday night to stay in the Copa AmericaUruguay has won five straight competitive matches including victories over Argentina (away) and Brazil (home)Below, see the USA vs Uruguay predictions, picks, and odds for July 1 at  Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO

A bitter 2-1 defeat at the hands of CONCACAF rival Panama last time out has left Team USA (1-0-1, 3 PTS, +1 GD) teetering on the brink of elimination at the 2024 Copa America. 

While they currently sit ahead of Panama (1-0-1, 3 PTS, -1 GD) in the standings due to goal differential, Panama faces group-worst Bolivia (0-0-2, 0 PTS, -7 GD) tonight, while the USA has to tangle with group-leading Uruguay (2-0-0, 6 PTS, +7 GD) at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.

Both games will kickoff at 9:00 pm ET. The USA is listed as a slight +159 favorite to win at bet365, with Uruguay at +200 and the draw at +230.

Panama is a -173 favorite to pick up the full three points against Bolivia and, if they win by a significant margin, may go through no matter what USA does against Uruguay.

USA vs Uruguay Predictions

Uruguay +0.5 (-200)Over 2.5 goals (+124)Panama to qualify from Group C (-125)

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Euro/Copa America betting record: 26-8-1 (+20.17 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

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Looking at recent results, it’s inexplicable to me that Team USA is favored in Monday’s match with Uruguay. While head coach Marcelo Bielsa is suspended, that’s of little consequence once the ball is actually kicked. He has his team functioning at arguably the highest level in the world right now.

While Uruguay went just 1-2-1 in four friendlies leading up to the Copa, their recent results in competitive fixtures speaks for itself. They sit second to Argentina in 2026 CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying (4-1-1) with the best goal differential among the ten teams (+8). Over their last three qualifiers, they dominated Bolivia (3-0), stunned Argentina (2-0) in Buenos Aires, and were fully deserving of a 2-0 home victory over Brazil, a game in which they held the Seleção without a shot on target.

Across those 270 minutes, they surrendered just three shots on target (all to Argentina) and 1.04 xGA.

Uruguay’s performance at the Copa has been equally impressive, albeit against lesser competition, running over Panama 3-1 (1.68 xGF to .054 xGA) and Bolivia 5-0 (2.64 xGF to 0.19 xGA).

One could argue that this match means little to Uruguay, who will finish first in the group barring a massive swing in goal differential. But technically Uruguay isn’t even assured of progression yet, and this is an opportunity to prevent the hosts from progressing. The USA represents a potential semifinal opponent and one of the last things Uruguay wants is to face the USMNT again in hostile territory on July 10.

Team USA started the tournament with a never-in-doubt 2-0 win over the Bolivians, when Christian Pulisic staked the USMNT to a 1-0 lead just two minutes into the game. While they allowed Bolivia to generate three shots on target, they weren’t high-quality chances and the USA conceded just 0.13 xGA.

Disaster struck early against Panama when Timothy Weah was shown red for a punch to the head of Roderick Miller. Folarin Balogun still managed to give ten-man USA the lead just minutes later, but Panama grinded out a 2-1 win to keep their hopes of advancing alive and well.

The loss was USA’s third on home soil in its last seven matches, and its fourth overall in its last eight; they were also obliterated by Colombia 5-1 at home in a pre-tournament friendly on June 8, fell 1-0 at home to Slovenia in a friendly on January 20, and lost 2-1 away to Trinidad & Tobago on November 11.

Weah remains suspended for tonight’s game, and it’s wing back Sergio Dest is still out with an ACL injury, meaning 21-year-old Joe Scally should earn his third straight start. While the young defender has impressed, in a game where USA needs goals, Dest would certainly be the preferred option if he was healthy.

On the whole, it’s hard to see the USA picking up three points against a Uruguay team playing as well as it is, though I do like the potential for a high-scoring game as the USMNT is forced into attack mode from the opening kick.

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Best USA vs Uruguay Odds

Odds as of July 1 at bet365. Lock in a bet365 bonus code to wager on the 2024 Copa America today. 

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The best moneyline prices are available at bet365, where the “Enhanced Moneyline” lists the USMNT at +159 to get the win they so badly need, with Uruguay at +200 and the draw at +230.

When it comes to the goal total, the best odds on over 2.5 are +124 at FanDuel, while the best price on the under is -145 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

FanDuel still has its odds-to-qualify prop up, listing both the USA and Panama at -125. While that’s a ton of juice, I am more-than-comfortable betting Panama at that price. Bolivia has been, by far, the worst team in the tournament so far. They have yet to score and have conceded a tournament-worst seven goals in two matches. They also have a CONMEBOL-worst -10 goal differential through six World Cup qualifiers.

Any Panama victory would require a USA victory to keep Panama out, and if Panama wins by three or more, USA would likely have to beat Uruguay by multiple goals to advance.