Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat Predictions, Odds & Picks on July 21

Jul 14, 2024; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Golden State Warriors forward Ethan Thompson (55) celebrates with forward Donta Scott (10) after making a play against the Chicago Bulls during the fourth quarter at Thomas & Mack Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY SportsThe Warriors and Heat meet in the Summer League semifinals on Sunday, July 21Golden State demolished Miami by 39 points in the first Summer League game for both teams on July 6Below, find the Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat odds, picks, and predictions

The Golden State Warriors (7-0) look to keep their perfect Summer League run intact on Sunday afternoon when they face the Miami Heat (6-1) in the semifinals at Thomas & Mack Arena at 1:00 pm PT/4:00 pm ET.

This is a rematch from the first Summer League game for both teams, which ended in a 105-66 rout in favor of the Dubs. Yet Sunday’s Warriors vs Heat odds list Miami as a not-insignificant 4.5-point favorite and -192 on the moneyline.

Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat Odds

The Warriors come back as +154 underdogs to maintain their unblemished record, while the game total is sitting at 179.5 with -110 odds each way.

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Odds as of July 21 at FanDuel. Use the top NBA betting apps to wager on 2024 Summer League. 

Heat Roll Through Vegas

Since dropping that lopsided decision to the Warriors on July 6, Miami has reeled off six straight victories – two in the “California Classic” and four in Vegas.

When Jaime Jaquez Jr joined the squad for the first two games in Vegas, he looked like a men among boys, racking up 62 points in 56 minutes and leading Miami to wins over Boston (119-114) and OKC (102-73).

But Jaquez didn’t play – or dress – for either of Miami’s last two Summer League matchups – a 102-73 demolition of the Raptors and a 92-79 victory over the Mavericks – and I don’t expect him to be in the lineup on Sunday. He’s gotten in his “game reps” and is clearly a cut above what’s on offer in Summer League.

With Jacquez in street clothes, Kel’el Ware has taken over. The #15 pick in the 2024 NBA draft has dropped 41 points with 20 rebounds over the last two games. Josh Christopher – the #24 pick back in 2021 – has averaged 14.0 PPG in six Summer League games, upping that to 17.3 PPG over the four games in Vegas.

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Golden State Crushing Opponents on the Glass

In its four Summer League games in Vegas, the Warriors have recorded an 11.25 average margin of victory, and a major factor has been their complete domination of the boards. The Warriors are +42 on the glass over the four games, finishing at least +8 in each one.

Like the Heat, Golden State got some help regular-season rotation players in the form of Brandin Podziemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis for a couple games. Neither played last time out and neither is expected to suit up in the semis on Sunday. But the Warriors are still 4-0 with neither in the lineup, and that includes the dominant win over the Heat back on July 6.

Warriors vs Heat Prediction for Summer League Semifinal

If Jaquez isn’t playing, the Heat roster for Sunday’s semifinal isn’t all that different from the first matchup between the teams, and neither is Golden State’s. Ware, Christopher, Cole Swider, and Pelle Larsson all suited up for Miami in the first game, while Golden State’s winning effort was propelled by Ethan Thompson (27 points) and Daeqwon Plowden (26 points).

While rosters/starting lineups for any given Summer League game are always difficult to predict, there’s no reason to expect the Warriors would rest either of those two, and I think the wrong team is favored here. Golden State is deep (for Summer League) and is out-hustling everyone they faced.

GSW vs MIA pick: Warriors moneyline (+154)

Sascha Paruk’s Summer League betting record: 4-3 (+1.11 units).All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise. 

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