Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions, Odds & Starting Pitchers (Friday, July 19)
by Brady Trettenero in MLB Baseball
Updated Jul 19, 2024 · 1:03 PM PDT
Jul 5, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola (27) throws against the Atlanta Braves in the second inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY SportsWe’ve made our Phillies vs Pirates prediction for Friday’s MLB cross-state clashThe Phillies are heavy -166 moneyline favorites, with the Pirates at +140Read below for Phillies vs Pirates prediction, odds and starting pitchers for July 19th
The red-hot Philadelphia Phillies roll into the Steel City on Friday for a three-game weekend set with the Pittsburgh Pirates. This cross-state rivalry gets underway at 6:40 PM ET at the beautiful PNC Park, with the game broadcast on SportsNet PT.
The Phils, who boast an MLB-best 62-34 record, are -166 moneyline favorites in the series opener. Pittsburgh, sitting at an even 48-48, comes back as a +140 moneyline underdog. Oddsmakers have the total sitting at 8 runs for this NL tilt.
Let’s dive into our Phillies vs Pirates prediction for Friday, as we analyze the MLB odds and starting pitchers.
Phillies vs Pirates Prediction
There’s no hotter team in baseball right now than the Philadelphia Phillies. They’ve been an absolute wagon this season, going 54-26 (67.5%) as moneyline favorites and an even more impressive 40-13 (75.5%) when favored at -158 or shorter.
But the Bucs aren’t just going to roll over at home. They’ve been pesky underdogs all year, winning 27 of 56 games (48.2%) when getting points. That said, they’re just 7-8 as +135 or longer moneyline ‘dogs.
Our city. pic.twitter.com/J48Vg8wBCf
— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) July 19, 2024
The Phils have been crushing the ball, ranking 4th in the MLB in runs per game (5) and 6th in dingers (118). Pittsburgh’s bats have been much quieter, ranking 21st in both runs per game (4.2) and homers (99).
On the bump, Philly’s rotation has been lights out with a 3.42 team ERA (2nd in MLB). The Bucs have been solid too, ranking 13th with a 3.86 ERA.
Considering the Phillies’ lethal offense and pitching advantage on Friday, we expect them to kick off this three-game series with a convincing victory. Don’t be scared to lay the juice on Philly on the road, as they are 4-0 in their last four games as a road favorite of -151 to -200.
Friday MLB Pick:
Phillies ML (-166)
Phillies vs Pirates Odds
Team Spread Moneyline Total PHI Phillies -1.5 (+102) -166 Over 8 (-110) PIT Pirates +1.5 (-122) +140 Under 8 (-110) The Phillies are laying some hefty lumber in this spot, coming in at -166 on the moneyline. That means you’d need to risk $166 to win $100 on a Philly victory. Oddsmakers are giving the Phils a 61.2% implied probability of starting this series with a W.
There is clearly some sharp action on the Phillies in the MLB odds, as this line opened as long as -135 in Philadelphia’s favor. We witnessed one of the rare instances where Vegas appeared to completely misprice an MLB betting line.
The break's over, and we're ready for more moments like this 🙌@JimBeam x #RingTheBell pic.twitter.com/mVmKBTXu25
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) July 19, 2024
If you like the home ‘dog, the Pirates are sitting at a juicy +140 moneyline price. A $100 wager on the black and yellow would net you $140 if they can pull off the upset. The implied probability of a Pittsburgh win is 42.6%.
Looking to bet the total? The number is 8, with both the over and under at -110. Bookmakers think there’s a 50/50 shot of this game going over or under eight combined runs.
The Phillies are one of the top favorites in the World Series odds this season, which is why they are favored in this matchup. The Pirates, while playing .500 baseball, have struggled against top-tier teams and will have their work cut out for them in this series.
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Odds as of July 19, at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Phillies vs Pirates Starting Pitchers
We’ve got a doozy of a pitching matchup on tap for the series opener. The Phillies send ace Aaron Nola to the bump, while the Pirates counter with veteran lefty Martin Perez.
Nola has been absolutely dealing this season, going 11-4 with a 3.38 ERA and 116 punchouts in 119.2 innings. He’s been even better on the road, going 6-1 with a 3.33 ERA in eight starts away from the City of Brotherly Love.
NolaVSPerez
11-4 Record 1-5 3.38 ERA 5.15 116 Strikeouts 57 119.2 Innings Pitched 73.1 6-1, 3.33 ERA Road/Home Splits 0-2, 3.89 ERA Perez, on the other hand, has struggled mightily. The southpaw is 1-5 with a bloated 5.15 ERA in 15 starts. He’s been marginally better at home (3.89 ERA in seven PNC Park starts), but still has a 0-2 record in those outings.
Advantage, Phillies. If you’re looking for a prop bet, consider backing Nola to rack up some Ks. He’s been punching out batters at a high clip all season. His strikeout prop in the MLB player props is sitting at 6.5 right now.
Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia Injury Report
Both of these squads are a bit banged up coming out of the All-Star break.
For the Phillies, catcher J.T. Realmuto and starter Taijuan Walker are on the 15-day IL, while pitchers Spencer Turnbull, Dylan Covey, Luis Ortiz, and Michael Rucker are all on the 60-day shelf. Ace Zack Wheeler is day-to-day with a back issue.
Pittsburgh has a few arms on the pine too. Daulton Jefferies, Jared Jones, and Hunter Stratton are on the 15-day IL, while Bailey Falter is also sitting for 15 with an arm injury. Ryan Borucki, Johan Oviedo, and Dauri Moreta are on the 60-day IL, as is backstop Endy Rodriguez.
While both teams are missing some pieces, it shouldn’t have a major impact on this game. The Phils still have their big bats ready to mash, and Nola is healthy and dealing. The Bucs will need to lean on their depth to try to slow down this stacked Phillies lineup.
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