Panthers Over on Wins Is the Best NFL Win Total Bet According to Successful Model
by Matt McEwan in NFL Football
Updated Jun 5, 2024 · 2:23 PM PDT
Jun 4, 2024; Charlotte, NC, USA; Carolina Panthers wide receiver Xavier Legette (17) throws during OTAs. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY SportsWe’re still three months away from the 2024-25 NFL season kicking off, but there are plenty of NFL futures for us to bet right nowAccording to one of my successful calculations, the Carolina Panthers to go over 4.5 wins is the best NFL win total bet to makeSee why I’m tailing and betting the Panthers to win at least five games
The Carolina Panthers were the worst team in football last season, and to make matters worse, they didn’t even get the benefit of making the first-overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft – they traded that pick away to move up for Bryce Young in 2023. It has been a rough nine months for Panthers fans.
Now the sportsbooks are piling on too. We have seen Carolina’s NFL win total open at just 4.5, which is tied for the lowest in the league with the Patriots. Allow me to come to your rescue, Panthers fans. This line is too low and I plan on making the sportsbooks pay for it.
One of my most successful metrics is called the SBD NFL Win Probability, and you can find the full calculation/results on my NFL Record Predictions page. This metric went 7-2 (+4.88 units) on its best bets last year and 7-3 on its most probable over/unders. Want to know what it’s most confident over/under and best bet is this year? The Carolina Panthers over 4.5 wins. (I’m sure you guessed correctly.)
Here are a few quick-hitters for you on the data that went into this calculation:
The Panthers are only 1-point underdogs in 3 games this season – vs Saints in Week 9, vs Giants in Week 10, and vs Cardinals in Week 16They are 3-point underdogs or less in 3 more games this seasonThere is not a single game where Carolina is more than a 7-point underdog
Sure, we can point to the fact that they are not favored in any game this season, but the odds would suggest a good handful of their games are going to be coin tosses, and sportsbooks expect them to be competitive in each game.
My metric doesn’t just suggest they’ll win five games either. It has their most probable record at 6-11 with the next-most likely being 7-10. The SBD NFL Win Probability calculation says there’s an 82.9%(!!) chance the Panthers win at least five games this season.
If you’ve heard enough, and just want to go make the bet already, the best place to do so (at the time of writing this) is bet365, where the odds are -135. If you’re not already signed up with them, be sure to claim the best bet365 bonus code for new users. However, in the time I was writing this, the Panthers’ win total has moved to 5.5 at all sportsbooks. You can find the odds as short as -110 at BetRivers. This is still a good bet with just a slightly lesser edge.
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If you want to dive into the qualitative reasons I personally like this bet, keep reading!
On top of the math saying the Panthers to go over their win total is a good bet, my gut is also saying the same thing. This Panthers team only won two games last season, but four of their 15 losses came by just three points. First-overall pick Bryce Young could not have looked much worse than he did last season, and his wide receivers didn’t give him much help.
In spite of not holding their own first-round pick, I thought Carolina had a pretty good draft. Xavier Legette, their first-round pick, is an explosive receiver, Jonathon Brooks, their second-round pick, likely becomes their new workhorse RB, and they ended up with Ja’Tavion Sanders in the fourth-round, who was pretty widely regarded as the second-best TE in the draft. Add in free agency acquisitions that include Diontae Johnson (great at creating separation), Jadeveon Clowney (will try to replace Brian Burns), two new starting offensive linemen, and A’Shawn Robinson (who will be great opposite Derrick Brown), and this looks like a much better team than last year.
New head coach Dave Canales will need to get more out of his second-year quarterback, but he has much better weapons and protection to do so. Looking outside the organization, here are a handful of other reasons I like the Panthers to bounce back this year:
I don’t trust Baker Mayfield to provide consistency for the Bucs offense, and they have to deal with a first-place schedule – the Bucs were a combined 12 points better than Carolina in their two games last seasonSame as the above when it comes to Derek Carr and the Saints, who nearly lost to the Panthers in Week 2 last seasonWhile everyone is salivating over the potential of Atlanta’s offense this season, I don’t feel they did much to improve upon their uninspiring pass-rush from last season. Maybe Raheem Morris coming in as the new head coach will be enough to fix their lack of pass-rush, or maybe they’ll have to prepare for weekly shootouts
Avert your eyes, Panthers fans – I’m not telling you the Panthers are going to win the NFC South this year. I am telling you that I am confident they will win at least five games, if not six or seven.
