Week 10 NFL Picks Against the Spread
by Ryan Metivier in NFL Football
Updated Nov 12, 2023 · 8:59 AM PST
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) hands off to Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III (9) in the first quarter of the NFL Week 6 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Seattle Seahawks at Paycor Stadium in downtown Cincinnati on Sunday, Oct. 15, 2023.This week our expert NFL ATS picks have selections from seven gamesCan the Cowboys cover as huge favorites? Will Detroit go into Los Angeles and come away with the cover?Get all of our top NFL picks against the spread from these games and more here
It’s another week of NFL picks against the spread and another week to try and claw our way back to respectability. The margins between wins and losses are tight in the NFL. We saw that last week with doinked field goals and quarterbacks stepping out of bounds turning Saints and Cowboys ATS picks into losers. We’ll hope for better bounces this week and it starts in Germany with two experts taking the Colts over the Patriots in their NFL picks against the spread. It continues with picks on Dallas and Seattle covering as big home favorites. Read on to see all of our top Week 10 ATS picks here.
NFL Expert Picks Today
| Ryan Metivier | Bob Duff | Zach Reger |
|---|---|---|
| Lions (-3) | Colts (-1.5) | Colts (-1.5) |
| Cowboys (-17) | Jaguars (+3) | Texans (+6.5) |
| Steelers (-3) | Seahawks (-6.5) | Lions (-3) |
| Record: 8-17-2 | Record: 8-18-1 | Record: 12-14-1 |
Our most popular Week 10 NFL picks against the spread come in the form of the Detroit Lions over the LA Chargers and Indianapolis Colts over the New England Patriots.
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Ryan Metivier
Lions (-3)
The Chargers are coming off of a MNF 27-6 win over the Jets. The Lions last played in Week 8 beating the Raiders 26-14. Coming off a bye and against a team that played on Monday will clearly give the Lions the rest advantage.
While that score for the Chargers looks good, Justin Herbert was just 16/20 for 136 yards and no touchdowns. The Lions may not be the Jets’ defense, but they’re still 14th in PPG allowed, 5th in yards allowed, 15th in passing and 3rd in rushing defense.
Herbert is also running short of options with both Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer on IR.
Meanwhile the Lions are about as healthy as they’ve been all season with only FB Jason Cabinda listed on the injury report among current offensive and defensive starters. That includes the return of starting RB David Montgomery who should give the Lions another red zone threat. Along with Jacksonville, Detroit has one of the best NFL ATS records overall at 6-2 and I’ll back them to keep cashing in my picks against the spread.
Cowboys (-17)
You can never feel good about laying 17 points in ATS picks and I don’t feel good about it here. But then I remember we already saw this matchup when the Cowboys beat down the Giants 40-0 in Week 1. That was in New York and with Daniel Jones at quarterback.
Now we’re going to Dallas, and New York is trotting out Tommy DeVito at QB.
The Giants were already scoring a league-low 11.2 PPG and that doesn’t look to improve under DeVito. The Giants have scored 6, 10, 14 and 9 points in the past month. They have losses of 40, 18, 21, 15 and 24 this season. They’re 2-7 SU and 2-6-1 ATS and I’m just not sure what their path to points is in this game against a Dallas defense ranked 6th in PPG and 5th in yards per game allowed.
Dallas already has wins of 40, 20, 35 and 23 this season. So another 20-point win is not out of the question.
Steelers (-3)
Some way, some how, the Steelers are currently 5-3 SU and a playoff team despite being 1-7 ATS. And despite being outgained in all eight games this season. That’s something that has happened 34 times in NFL history. Of the 33 previous teams to be outgained in each of their first eight games to start a season, the other 33 all had losing records. Of those other 33, only one finished the year with a winning record and oddly, that team was the 2022 Steelers of last year.
The Packers aren’t winning or covering spreads this season at both 3-5 SU and ATS. They did win last week, 20-3 over the Rams, but that came with the Rams playing without Matthew Stafford and with Brett Rypien, he of now ten NFL games, and he who was prompty cut following the loss.
Love has 12 TDs on the year but six of those came in the first two weeks. Since that time he’s thrown just six touchdowns to go with eight interceptions.
The Steelers have been giving up a pile of yards on defense (31st YPG allowed), but they are ninth in sacks (26) and tied in eighth for interceptions (8). They’ll find a way to get after Love and put the Steelers in a position to win ugly in a close game at home.
Mike Tannenbaum only one on GetUp! picking against the Steelers vs Packers #Steelers #NFL pic.twitter.com/q9ELuHyETG
— Steelers Depot 7⃣ (@Steelersdepot) November 10, 2023
Bob Duff
Colts (-1.5)
Whether you look at it straight up (2-7) or ATS (2-7), this is the worst New England team in decades. The Patriots are last in the AFC in both categories. There’s even speculation that coach Bill Belichick might not survive another loss if they drop to 2-8.
The Colts are 4-1 in picks against the spread in the last five games within the conference. Indianapolis has scored at least 20 points in 10 successive games. New England has scored less than 20 points in seven of the past eight games.
Jaguars (+3)
Losers of three in a row following a 5-0 start, San Francisco looks to be a team in trouble. However, the 49ers are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with Jacksonville.
This is a different Jaguars team, though, one with a real chance of gaining home field in the opening round of the playoffs. Jacksonville has won and covered in each of the last five games.
Seahawks (-6.5)
Seattle will be seeking to right the ship following last Sunday’s debacle at Baltimore. The Seahawks are 2-1-1 ATS at home this season and 4-1 ATS in the past five games against an NFC opponent.
The Commanders are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games and 11-6-3 in the last 20 as a betting underdog.
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Zach Reger
Colts (-1.5)
Favorites in NFL international games are 28-15 against the spread, and that trend should continue this Sunday. It does not matter if the game is in the United States or in Europe, there is no way I can back the Patriots offense right now. Indianapolis’ defense has not been great this season, but that should be a non-factor in this game with Mac Jones under center.
On the other side of the ball, Indianapolis has been able to move the ball both on the ground and through the air. That should continue this week against a New England defense that was gashed last week by the Commanders.
Texans (+6.5)
Houston has been one of the surprise teams of the season mostly due to the play of CJ Stroud. The Bengals have also looked great of late, but this is a tough spot for Cincinnati.
They are going on the road after a big Sunday night game against the Bills, and they face the Ravens next Thursday night. This is a spot where I believe the Texans offense will do enough to keep this game close, as the Bengals will be looking ahead to next week’s AFC North bout.
The Detroit Lions (-3 @ LAC) are the most-bet ATS team for Week 10 of the NFL season 🦁#OnePride pic.twitter.com/cmzdqPr1vX
— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) November 8, 2023
Lions (-3)
The Lions are fresh off the bye, and should handle business in Los Angeles. The Chargers have won two in a row, but the first win was against the Bears. Last week, they beat up on the Jets, but that game told me more about the Jets than the Chargers.
Detroit’s defense is a top unit and will challenge the Chargers’ ability to score. The Chargers defense has looked great the past two weeks, but Detroit is on a completely different level than the Bears and the Jets. Give me the Lions to win by more than a field goal in my picks against the spread.
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